Winning the 2026 holiday shopper: 6 global trends advertisers need to know

Our latest global research shows that the shopping journey is compressing. Habits are shifting away from last-minute impulse buys and toward detailed deal hunting that begins months before decorations go up.

Here's what to keep in mind to capture the attention of shoppers who are brainstorming gift ideas, comparing products side-by-side, and looking for the best deals.

For your brand to win this season, you'll need to prepare to influence decisions before traditional search begins by being visible, understood, trusted, and recommended across AI experiences.

In fact, 76% of U.S. shoppers plan to use AI to plan their seasonal spending, alongside 74% in Australia and 70% in the UK.¹ And AI users research and convert more actively. For example, in EMEA, they’re 12 points more likely to use search and 9% more likely to convert within 24 hours.²

Your opportunity to win: Your investment into paid search is your key to reaching broad upper funnel prompts, ensuring your brand is considered in chat experiences. Building for bots and not just humans is an important transition for every advertiser’s strategy.

Economic pressure is real and broad. Across the U.S., EMEA, and Australia, inflation has climbed and cost of living remains a concern. But shoppers aren't all responding the same way.

Some shoppers are becoming more driven by value and affordability, while others remain willing to spend but are more selective on quality, trust, convenience, sustainability, or exceptional service. Ultimately, demand holds up when shoppers feel the spend is justified: A third of U.S. shoppers say the economy won't change their spending, and 23% actually plan to spend more.³

Your opportunity to win: Segment your approach with options like promotions and offers to engage value-conscious shoppers and differentiated experiences emphasizing trust, quality, and brand values for higher-intent or less price-sensitive audiences.

The average holiday conversion journey now takes 52 days. October is the first click for 56% of November conversions and 35% of December conversions.⁴

In the U.S., 63% of shoppers start before Halloween. The pattern repeats globally: 52% of Australian shoppers plan to buy in the Prime Day-to-Black Friday window, and in the UK, nearly half start in that same window.⁵

Your opportunity to win: Create demand before shoppers create a shortlist. Brands that influence consideration early earn a place on the final shopping list instead of waiting for peak season when decisions have already been made.

Sales events remain a powerful driver of holiday spending. In the U.S., 82% shopped one last year, and 87% intend to plan their purchases around seasonal sales this year, too. And with 2 in 3 shoppers using discount marketplaces, value continues to shape purchase decisions.⁶

Your opportunity to win: Treat sales events as demand accelerators instead of standalone moments. Black Friday, Cyber Monday, and major promotional periods remain critical, but winning brands will build visibility and audience engagement throughout the journey.

The holidays are filled with meaningful, emotional moments, so shoppers want to be inspired. Inspiration-seeking queries, like gift guides and custom-gifting terms, have roughly tripled year over year.⁷

Gifting circles are expanding again: Across global markets, friends and family gifting is rebounding, self-gifting remains strong with younger shoppers, and sustainable gifting is growing.⁸

Your opportunity to win: Translate products into meaningful solutions, gifting ideas, and seasonal moments to capture holiday shoppers as they increasingly look for ideas, guidance, and validation before they're ready to buy. 

There are opportunities for trusted brands as well as challengers this year. While most shoppers are looking for brands they're familiar with, nearly three-quarters of shoppers are either intentionally looking for or open to discovering new brands during sales events across markets.⁹

Your opportunity to win: Whether your advantage comes from value, quality, convenience, innovation, or purpose, make your differentiation easy for consumers and AI systems to understand why your brand deserves consideration

At a glance: the season across markets

As AI compresses the shopping journey, it’s bringing discovery, validation, and action into the same moment. Holiday campaign success won’t come from simply reaching more people, but from reaching the people most likely to spend and convert during the moments that shape decision-making, especially inside conversational AI spaces.

And by combining higher-value audiences, billions of first-party signals, and trusted surfaces spanning work, life, and play, Microsoft helps advertisers win across all three eras of the web this holiday season—connecting with shoppers from inspiration and research through purchase, while preparing for AI-driven commerce.

We’ve also put together practical, step-by-step strategies to win on who you reach this season in our latest guide, Unwrapping Performance: The Advertising Holiday Playbook.

You’ll find all the insights and tactical guidance you need to help your brand stand out in AI-powered shopping experiences, making it easier for AI to find, understand, trust, recommend, and transact with you.

Our team is also ready to help you build a personalized approach to your holiday campaigns. Talk to a Microsoft Advertising expert to get started, or check out our holiday campaign training webinar series with live and on-demand sessions.